Miami got its World Cup. Then it got the bill.
The tournament lifted June and July. August and September took back double. This is the whole arithmetic, including the part where we check our own forecast against it.
Four months, not two.
Every forecast written about the 2026 World Cup, this one included, stopped at the final whistle. The market did not.
June and July did what an event is supposed to do. Then the two months that followed gave back more than the tournament had delivered.
Revenue per available night, against the same months of 2025
RevPAR carries both the rate and the nights that went unsold, so it is the only figure here that cannot be made to look good by raising price into a falling calendar.
Occupancy is the tell. It fell eight points in June and six in July, during the largest demand event the city has ever hosted. A market cannot do that unless the supply arriving to meet the demand is growing faster than the demand itself. Miami has 3,400 more available listings than a year ago. Unlike the tournament, they did not leave in July.
What that looks like on the ground
Brickell, Wynwood, South Beach and downtown. A market that prices its weekends properly and still leaves most of the obvious money on the table.
One thing travels. Everything else is local.
We pulled three whole markets on the same day, through the same tool. They had three different problems. The same advice would have made two of them worse.
| Tulum | Miami | Cabo East | |
|---|---|---|---|
| What went wrong | Lost nights | Supply surge | Blunt discount |
| Listings that never move their rate | 24% | 14% | 44% |
| What those listings take | 0.42 | 0.36 | 0.82 |
| Listings that move it often | 26% | 63% | 18% |
| What those listings take | 1.42 | 1.22 | 1.44 |
| Asking price against achieved | −22.2% | −22.5% | −23.4% |
All three pulled 24 October 2026. Index figures are a group’s share of bookings divided by its share of listings, so 1.00 is parity.
★ The cost of standing still scales with how many of your competitors are moving. Where 44% of a market never adjusts, standing still barely hurts. Where only 14% never adjust, it is ruinous.
One measure survives all three. The listings that move their rate beat the listings that do not, in every market, by between 1.22 and 1.44 times. Not the direction of the move. The fact of it.
Everything above and the working underneath it.
The complete Miami market report
Nothing on this page is held back. The full report is the evidence underneath it.
- Two years of occupancy, rate and revenue per available night, month by month
- Asking price against achieved price, broken out by bedroom count
- When this market books and how long people stay
- The full index set: rate movement, management, cancellation policy, discounts and capacity
- Five things the data says to do if you own here
- Method, sources and every limit on what the data can tell you
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Method. Figures come from a single PriceLabs whole market pull for Miami, Florida, Airbnb inventory, run on 24 October 2026. Revenue, occupancy and RevPAR are PriceLabs estimates rather than reported host earnings. Full limits are stated in the report.
No Marketics performance figures appear on this page. Nothing here is a claim about what Marketics has achieved for anyone. Rate movement bands are PriceLabs’ own classification of how often a listing’s price changes. No pricing tool is named, recommended or criticized.
Methodology home: the STR Performance Index